Indonesia-Canada Price Comparison

I am preparing my talk at the Politeknik UI (Universitas Indonesia) next week on Monday, 16 April 2012. One slide I wanted to share with you is the price comparison table I made.

The most important information is the CDN:INA Purchasing Power Ratio. It is the ratio of the number of same goods purchased with Canadian salary to Indonesian salary. When the Purchasing Power Ratio says "4.2:1", it means the Canadian salary can buy the same item 4.2 times more than the Indonesian salary can for that particular item. It is quite telling.

Desakan Keluarga

Gaji lulusan universitas (S1) Indonesia kecil. Di pekerjaan pertama, lulusan S1 menerima gaji Rp 3-4 juta/bulan. Kenaikan pendapatan tidak akan cepat. Pengalaman kerja 10 tahun bisa menaikkan gaji awal menjadi sekitar Rp 5-7 juta/bulan di akhir tahun kesepuluh. Ini berarti kenaikan gaji rata-rata 5.5%/tahun, sementara inflasi harga sekitar 6%/tahun.

Lulusan S1 baru bisa bernafas setelah 10 tahun kerja. Saat sekitar usia 35 tahun ini, tergantung dia bekerja dimana, ada beberapa pilihan untuk menaikkan gaji dengan lebih cepat.

Pertama, dia harus buka usaha sendiri, yang bisa dirintis saat usia 30. Posisi yang paling baik di perusahaan untuk mengerjakan ini adalah sales engineer karena akan mendapatkan banyak kontak untuk memulai usaha baru. Jangan ragu jika harus bersaing dengan bos sendiri, karena ini sudah jalannya.

Kedua, dia bisa pindah kerja ke perusahaan asing. Perusahaan asing bisa menggaji 30-50% lebih tinggi dari perusahaan nasional. Kenapa? Karena perusahaan asing ingin mendapatkan karyawan terbaik dan mau keluar uang. Jika mau meraih ini, perbaiki kemampuan bicara dan menulis email berbahasa Inggris.

Ketiga, dia menyalahgunakan posisinya. Desakan kebutuhan rumah tangga akhirnya tidak bisa dibendung. Sudah 10 tahun berkeluarga, masa tidak ada perubahan ekonomi keluarga? Mulailah proyek pembelian barang diproyekkan lagi, waktu pembayaran tagihan supplier dijualbelikan, atau uang yang sedianya untuk beli ini dipakai sebentar untuk beli itu.

Upaya kenaikan gaji dengan menyalahgunakan posisi tidak sehat. Jika merasa kebutuhan keluarga sudah lebih besar dari gaji yang diterima, sebaiknya keluar saja. Keputusan ini amat sangat sering tidak gampang karena dapur harus ngepul terus.

Pemicu utama pengkorupsian jiwa datang dari kebutuhan keluarga yang tidak direncanakan dengan baik.

Gaji awal kecil sebenarnya tidak cukup untuk menopang keluarga. Tapi karena kebutuhan seks tidak bisa dibendung lagi, haruslah lulusan S1 ini menikah secepatnya.

Desakan pihak keluarga mendorong secepatnya punya anak. Begitu punya anak, kebutuhan keluarga akan naik 4-5 kali lipat. Lingkaran kebutuhan uang dimulai.

Saya dulu menikah di usia muda. Di tahun sama saat lulus S1. Saya juga punya anak 1 tahun setelah menikah. Kami diuntungkan tinggal di Canada dimana kami bisa sembunyi dari tuntutan keluarga dan desakan untuk belanja ini itu dari kawan dan saudara. Kami bisa cuek bebek menikmati rumah tangga kami dan membentuknya sendiri tanpa campur tangan orang lain.

Kepada setiap anak muda yang saya temui dan ngobrol di Indonesia, saya selalu menyarankan untuk menunda punya anak. Nikah silakan saja, tapi jangan takut cerai jika tidak cocok.

Biar gampang proses cerainya, jangan keburu punya anak. Logika yang gampang dan mudah dimengerti, tapi sukar untuk dilaksanakan. Disini letak pentingnya memilih pasangan hidup tahan banting dan berkomunikasi dengan terbuka.

Malas Berpikir

Pekerja Indonesia pekerja keras. Saya tahu itu, setelah 11 bulan bekerja di Indonesia. Mereka bekerja dari jam 8 pagi sampai 5 sore, seperti kebanyakan pekerja di Amerika Utara.

Tugas-tugas yang bersifat rutin, seperti memfotokopi dokumen, mencatat pemasukan dan pengeluaran uang, membalas email, dilakukan dengan cepat. Pekerja Indonesia tidak juga gaptek (gagap teknologi), bahkan canggih karena tidak jarang satu orang punya lebih dari 1 smartphone.

Yang jarang saya temukan adalah pekerja Indonesia mengerjakan analisis, baik data, alur kerja, ataupun pemikiran. Keengganan ini nampak jikapun sudah diminta. Ini kesimpulan dari beberapa kali saya meminta agar analisis dikerjakan dan menerima respon minimum.

Saya pikir ada tiga alasan kenapa pekerja Indonesia kurang suka menganalisa. Pertama, dia harus memutuskan sendiri langkah-langkah yang harus diambil, seperti memilih data apa yang harus dikumpulkan dan diolah. Lalu, memutuskan bagaimana mengolahnya agar bisa terlihat pola angkanya, dan mengambil keputusan dari hasil olahan data.

Jika tidak terbiasa menganalisa saat di sekolah dan universitas, akan kecil kemungkinan kemampuan ini timbul sendirinya di tempat kerja. Cara belajar yang mengedepankan hafalan berpengaruh buruk kepada kemampuan analisa. Ketidakberanian mengambil keputusan datang karena gaya belajar hafalan.

Kedua, tuntutan pekerjaan masih belum sampai ke analisis data. Banyak lapangan kerja di Indonesia yang berhubungan dengan tugas administratif. Mencatat ini itu, mendaftar ini itu, mengantar jemput ini itu. Pekerjaan ini tidak menuntut banyak berpikir. Daya pikir menjadi pasif di tempat kerja.

Ketiga, kemampuan teknis untuk menganalisis masih lemah. Kemampuan ini - untuk analisis teknik - datang dari ilmu dasar: fisika, matematika, kimia. Jika penguasaaan ilmu dasar lemah, maka sukar diharapkan analisis teknik benar dilakukan walaupun keinginan ada. Kurangnya kemampuan teknis ini lalu diisi oleh tenaga ekspat yang juga terlatih mengambil keputusan sendiri karena bersekolah di luar negeri.

Ketidakmampuan mengambil keputusan dengan akal sehat adalah hasil sistem pendidikan Indonesia yang sangat menitikberatkan hafalan dan kepatuhan buta. Setiap mata pelajaran punya potensi untuk mengasah daya pikir siswa, tapi ini jarang dilakukan. Yang penting dalam belajar Sejarah adalah tanggal dan nama. Yang penting dalam belajar Fisika dan Matematika adalah pemakaian rumus-rumus siap pakai.

Saya yakin kenyataan kacaunya sistem pendidikan Indonesia sudah disadari. Jika langkah nyata untuk membetulkan sistem terhalang oleh berjalannya proyek-proyek pendidikan yang sarat uang, maka akan makin runyam nasib bangsa ini.

Motivasi Belajar

Sekolah di Indonesia beda dengan di Canada. Anak SD Indonesia sudah dipacu belajar keras. Tabel perkalian sudah harus dihafal di kelas 3, pembagian dan pecahan sudah diajarkan di kelas 4. Anak2 SD di Canada tidak semaju itu. Jadinya, saya dituduh anak saya - karena tahun lalu dia masih sekolah SD di Canada - merusak hidupnya karena sekolah sudah tidak fun lagi.

Materi SD di Indonesia memang berat. Saya ingat dulu masih SD, menghafal berbagai informasi di mata pelajaran IPA dan IPS. Para orang tua bangga jika anaknya menang acara lomba cerdas cermat, padahal lomba ini sebenarnya lomba menghafal saja.

Masalahnya, sekarang orang yang kuat menghafal kurang berguna. Google sudah bisa mengalahkan orang2 seperti ini.

Sekolah di SMP Indonesia juga lebih berat dari di Canada karena lagi-lagi hafalan yang teramat banyak, paling tidak di pelajaran Sejarah, Agama, dan PMP (Pendidikan Moral Pancasila, jaman sekolah saya). Anak sulung saya saat SMP tidak belajar sekeras saya.

Sekolah SMA di Canada baru sebanding dengan SMA di Indonesia. Anak sulung saya belajar keras saat di kelas 11 dan 12. Tidak beda dengan saya dulu. Yang membedakan adalah dia diajari bernalar. Fisika diajarkan dengan eksperimen dulu dan dicocokkan dengan teori. Matematika diajarkan dengan teliti dimana dasar pemikiran juga diberikan. Dulu ini saya kerjakan sendiri karena rajin ke toko buku loak, sementara di SMA cuma rumus-rumus fisika dan matematika yang dicekokkan ke saya.

Situasi berbalik 180 derajat ketika kuliah. Beban kuliah universitas di Canada jauh lebih berat dari di Indonesia. Sehabis tingkat SD-SMP-SMA yang melelahkan, mahasiswa Indonesia lebih rileks belajarnya. Tidak terlihat mereka dikejar-kejar waktu dan sibuk mengerjakan tugas kuliah. Ini yang saya perhatikan saat jadi dosen tamu di ITB tahun 2010. Saya tidak ingat masa kuliah saya serileks mahasiswa2 di Indonesia.

Pada saat mestinya dipacu karena universitas adalah tempat penggemblengan utama sebelum masuk ke "real world", siswa Indonesia justru mengalami anti klimaks. Motivasi belajar bisa rusak karena tidak ditantang secara akademis. Yang didapat bisa jadi akhirnya fakta-fakta dari hafalan semasa SMP dan SMA.

Tiga Pelajaran

1. Bantu diri sendiri sebelum bantu orang lain

Jangan termakan pikiran menggebu membantu orang lain karena belum tentu dia mau dibantu atau berubah. Membantu orang lain akhirnya melelahkan karena waktu sendiri terbuang percuma, jika tidak dilakukan dengan senang.

Ada alasan masuk akal kenapa orang jatuh miskin. Dia kurang pendidikan atau tidak cerdas, kurang bekerja keras, salah strategi usaha, atau kombinasi ketiganya. Bisa orang miskin karena besar pasak dari tiang. Bukan hanya karena beli barang yang berlebih, tapi karena tanggung jawab yang dia pikul melebihi kemampuannya.

Orang miskin yang memang sadar atau senang miskin tidak perlu dibantu. Orang seperti ini berkarakter merdeka dan tidak bisa dibujuk atau ditaklukkan.

Orang miskin yang mengeluh miskin bisa dibantu, tapi jangan membantu melebihi kemampuannya untuk bangkit dari kemiskinan.

2. Semua orang punya masalah

Omong kosong orang tertawa dan tersenyum terus. Bilang tidak ada masalah. Orang ini, jika tidak bodoh, tidak mengerti buat apa hidupnya.

Penting untuk mencari apa yang tiap kita senang lakukan saat masih hidup. Karena semua orang punya masalah. Jika saya tidak melakukan yang saya cintai tiap hari, maka masalah saya lebih banyak dari masalah orang lain.

Apa yang sekejab terlihat menyenangkan akan membawa masalah. Tidak ada yang gratis di dunia ini. Mau seks gratis, orang kemudian berpikir untuk menikah. Tapi anak muda kurang sadar biaya keluarga sangat besar dibanding biaya hidup sendiri.

3. Tiap kita tidak pernah belajar dari pengalaman orang lain

Orang pintar saja sering berbuat salah, apalagi yang bodoh. Tambah lagi, semua orang tidak pernah belajar dari pengalaman orang lain.

Sering saya sarankan ke anak muda untuk tidak cepat menikah. Tapi sama seringnya saran saya diabaikan. Ya sudah, silakan. Risiko tanggung penumpang sendiri.

Makanya dunia berputar terus. Tiap kita mencari jalan sendiri. Karena tiap kita tidak pernah cukup bijaksana untuk belajar dari pengalaman orang lain.

Wrist Watch

Do I have to wear a wrist watch? I need to know time, but I can tell time from my cell phone. Or ask someone: it is a great way to start a conversation.

I haven't worn a wrist watch for 2 years now. Yellow band around my wrist disappeared. My wrist does not smell anymore since no more sweats accumulate. I tried leather and metallic straps, but none worked to get rid of the smell.

So many things I do are based on what people and custom tell me. Some, like wearing a wrist watch, for me at least, clearly have no firm rational or need basis. So I got rid of it. For good.

Do I have to use a BlackBerry or iPhone or other smartphone? I bought 2 BlackBerry at different times to keep connected when in Indonesia. Initially I liked it since my friends and I could chat easily using BlackBerry Messenger.

Over time though, my BlackBerry became a great nuisance since people broadcast questionable stuff: religious fatwas and opinions, all manners of jokes. The worst offenders were BlackBerry groups as they kept causing the alert lights to blink to only remind me to read wayward comments about anything.

So I bought a simple phone with only texting capability.

Alam Semesta

Tuhan berinvestasi luar biasa mahal
Jika alam semesta dibuat hanya untuk
Menilai manusia selama hidupnya
Mau masuk neraka, atau surga

Karena bumi kita sangatlah kecil
Dibanding tata surya dan gugusan bintang
Alam semesta bisa mengembang terus
Semua ini cuma untuk kita?

Jika benar, ini guyonan kosmik luar biasa
Untuk Tuhan yang amat Maha Kuasa
Hanya peduli yang enam milyar kita
Bukankah kita yang sangat pongah?

Janganlah terlalu percaya omongan orang
Apalagi yang mengaku alim ahli surga
Kita tidak bisa malas menyerahkan hidup
Ke altar jadi-jadian belum tentu benar

Memang alternatif yang lain lebih sepi
Pekat gelap karena berpikir sendiri
Tapi aku yakin Tuhan pasti senyum
Mereka yang mencari sendiri

P.S. Foto diunduh dari Hubble Deep Space website (http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/1996/01/image/a/)

Fluctuations as GDP Growth

I am scratching my head as I think about Indonesia's economy:

1. Road infrastructure is mismanaged and underfunded; it takes 13 hours to drive 600 km in Jawa.
2. Telecommunication infrastructure is working, however, since it is in the hand of private companies. 
3. Average level of education of Indonesians is grade 9 (please read my previous blog on average education level of Indonesians). 
4. Income per capita of Indonesian is about USD 3500.

Despite all of these, the 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate of Indonesia is 6.1%. Canada does not have these structural problems, yet it experiences a GDP annual growth rate of 3.2% in 2010.

I am beginning to think that what Indonesia - and I suspect other developing countries also - experiences is a growth spur that could be associated with statistical fluctuations. It is known in statistical physics that a large system that conserves its total energy will experience fluctuations on the order of the inverse square root of its number of particles.

Laws of large numbers are quite robust, so I doubt that they don't apply to economic systems. Since Canada's population is about 7.4 smaller than Indonesia's, it suggests that, assuming 1/2 of 34 millions of Canadians participate fully in their economic system, there are about

17 millions × (3.2/6.1)² = 4.75 millions

Indonesians who fully participate in Indonesia's economy. Thus, only 1.9% of the Indonesian population that are causing the 6.1% GDP annual growth of Indonesia if this growth is caused by statistical fluctuations. I don't have time to check the Indonesia's statistics, but I am willing to bet that the 1.9% number would be roughly equal to the percentage of Indonesians who received undergraduate degrees or higher.

From everyday's perspectives, I see the low quality of human capital and the dire state of road infrastructure as the two main barriers to improving Indonesia's economic performance. These two problems are the choke points of Indonesia's progress and could cause the 6.1% growth to abate at some point. What might precipitate this inflection is anyone's guess.

What remains true in Indonesia though is opportunity. The untapped market is at least 10 times the 1.9% that cause the 6.1% growth. But it will have to wait for the human capital quality to improve so that their average wage rises. Road infrastructure can drag down economy due to high transportation costs; Indonesians are increasingly upset with their road infrastructure.

Mobil Nasional

Indonesia rindu cerita sukses. Mobil Kiat Esemka langsung digadang-gadang sebagai mobil nasional dan optimisme tinggi diumumkan di teve dan surat kabar bahwa era mobil nasional telah tiba.

Optimisme ini mencurigakan dari awal, karena teknologi otomotif sarat dengan ilmu dan teknologi yang terus terang diluar kemampuan Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan (SMK). Ilmu dan teknologi yang perlu dikuasai untuk melahirkan industri otomotif yang tangguh meliputi sistem kontrol elektronik, mekatronik, pengecoran dan machining logam, metalurgi, mekanik, ergonomik, kimia pembakaran (combustion science), dan metal forming.

Investasi yang dibutuhkan juga sangat mahal. Satu CNC (computer numerical control) machine berharga sekitar Rp 2,5 milyar yang mampu memproduksi komponen dengan tolerasi sekitar 6/1000 inch. Taksiran saya, 2 jam dibutuhkan untuk menyiapkan dan membor empat silinder untuk mesin mobil. Jika ingin memproduksi 300 mesin tiap bulan untuk produksi 300 mobil tiap bulan, dibutuhkan 3 CNC machine. Investasi untuk manufaktur ini saja bisa Rp 15 milyar karena selain CNC machine juga dibutuhkan alat-alat kerja lainnya seperti cutting inserts, chucks, dan juga biaya pemeliharaan dan pekerja.

Pembuatan blok transmisi juga menyita modal dan ilmu. Gears harus dibuat dari material steel alloy khusus - biasanya AISI 4130 - dan CNC machine tambahan dibutuhkan. Berbeda dengan engine block yang bisa dibuat dari cast steel, material untuk gears ini sangat keras sehingga pembuatannya pun rumit dan mahal.

Ilmu dan resep pembuatan permukaan yang licin, tahan panas, dan kuat dibutuhkan untuk melapisi silinder agar piston yang bergerak dengan kecepatan 4000 rpm tidak rusak. Riset dibutuhkan untuk bisa mengembangkan teknologi ini karena saya bayangkan Jepang, Jerman, dan AS tidak akan memberikan know-how ini dengan cuma-cuma.

Vehicle dynamics juga dibutuhkan untuk mengatur toleransi dan design mobilnya. Berapa jarak antara axle depan dan belakang? Bagaimana design rangka mobil agar bisa menyerap energi tubrukan kecepatan tinggi? Berapa toleransi engsel dan washers agar kabin mobil bisa bergerak tenang dan tidak bising? Seberapa empuk shock absorber harus disetel agar penumpang merasa nyaman dan mobil tetap terasa kokoh? Ini semua perlu dimodel secara matematik, digambar memakai CAD (computer aided design), dan diuji coba.

Emisi gas buang juga harus dites. Berapa banyak konsentrasi NOX, CO2, dan yang lain. Berapa temperature di kamar pembakaran (combustion chamber)? Berapa campuran optimum antara bensin dan udara agar output power tinggi tapi tetap efisien dan tidak membuang gas beracun terlalu banyak? Teknologi catalytic converter juga harus dikuasai agar paling tidak pemilihan teknologi yang akan dibeli menjadi tepat.

Rasa dan kualitas kabin harus juga bagus. Kursi dan jok terasa mewah tanpa harus mahal. Teknologi injection molding harus dikuasai untuk membuat komponen-komponen kabin seperti dashboard dan lainnya.

Jika mobil nasional akhirnya menjadi industri karoseri, maka hemat saya ini tidaklah cukup dan tidak perlu digembar-gemborkan. Kunci kedigdayaan mobil nasional adalah penguasaan teknologi material dan manufaktur untuk membuat engine block, transmission block, chassis, dan drive train. Jika ini tidak dikuasai, kita harus jujur bilang kita tidak bisa.

Penguasaan ilmu dan teknologi tidak bisa dipolitisasi (baca: diakali oleh poli-tikus). Masalahnya tinggal: mau tidak membiayai riset jangka panjang, dimana uang akan terbuang untuk trial and error mencari teknologi baru. Pembuangan uang ini jauh lebih bagus dan mengena daripada pembuangan uang lewat korupsi dan ekonomi biaya tinggi pemerintah.

Jika ingin memulai industri mobil nasional, mulailah dari penguasaan ilmu material and manufaktur logam. Tiga hal yang perlu dikuasai cepat adalah (i) pelapisan logam agar permukaan licin dan tahan panas; (ii) precision manufacturing memakai CNC; dan (iii) CAD design and modeling.

Swastanisasi PNS

Korupsi di Indonesia sudah sangat parah dan pelik untuk diselesaikan. Dari yang terbawah sampai teratas. Memberantas korupsi sampai ke akarnya berarti mengganti sebagian besar aparat pegawai negeri sipil (PNS). Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (KPK) tidak akan mampu menyelesaikan masalah ini.

Masalah korupsi jika tidak diselesaikan tuntas 10 tahun lagi akan menjadi penghambat serius kemajuan Indonesia. Padahal selain korupsi, jeleknya infrastruktur transportasi akan juga semakin memburuk karena ditentukan oleh kualitas PNS.

Sistem PNS sendiri tidak akuntabel dan akibatnya membolehkan korupsi berlangsung, melembaga, dan tumbuh pesat. Pimpinan eselon atas dikaderkan dari bawah dan sistem pengkaderan ini bisa jadi sudah korup dari awal. Menteri adalah jabatan politik dan diisi orang parpol, tapi parpol sendiri juga banyak yang busuk. Intinya, PNS tidak mengerti konsep untung-rugi (reward & punishment) yang sangat dipahami pegawai swasta, apalagi sukar buat PNS untuk dipecat.

Satu cara untuk memberangus korupsi di jajaran PNS adalah menswastanisasi PNS. Jasa yang diberikan jajaran administrasi PNS sampai ke pimpinan dua level dibawah menteri sebaiknya dilelang lewat tender (outsourced). Jasa pengurusan administrasi tiap kementrian ditenderkan dan pemenang tender karena aspek harga, pengalaman, dan kualitas akan mengerjakan tugas administrasi kementrian tersebut.

Tidak perlu risau rahasia negara akan bocor karena (1) hanya beberapa kementrian saja yang strategis, seperti Luar Negeri, Pertahanan, dan Dalam Negeri; (2) pimpinan kementrian dua level dibawah menteri kebanyakan pelaksana keputusan; (3) pengambil keputusan dan perumus kebijakan strategis tetap ditangan menteri dan pejabat satu level dibawahnya.

Jika PNS menjadi pegawai swasta lewat proses tender maka (1) mereka akan takut dipecat jika kinerja tidak bagus; (2) ada atasan mereka yang sangat peduli kinerja mereka mengingat kontrak kerja berdasarkan waktu terbatas; (3) mereka akan lebih diawasi oleh perusahaan2 yang kalah tender jika ada penyelewengan; (4) target pencapaian dengan kriteria pemberantasan korupsi, biaya jasa, dan target kerja bisa disebutkan jelas dan mengikat di dokumen tender.

Proses tenderisasi jasa administrasi PNS ini juga akan memberikan peluang pemerintah memperbaiki upah buruh. Pemerintah bisa mendongkrak standar gaji lewat biaya gaji yang ditenderkan. Pemerintah berkompetisi langsung dengan sektor swasta yang lain dalam merekrut tenaga kerja berkualitas.

Sistem kaderisasi tetap bisa berjalan karena yang bagus kinerja bisa dipromosikan ke level yang lebih tinggi. Meritokrasi akan lebih berjalan karena perusahaan swasta yang menang tender akan terus memperbaiki diri dan memilih pekerja yang unggul untuk dipertahankan. Bisa juga pimpinan administrasi di level dua dibawah menteri dipromosikan menjadi PNS dengan menjadi pegawai satu level dibawah menteri.

Sistem pengawasan melekat akan berjalan. Pegawai kontrak dari perusahaan yang menang tender akan mengawasi atasan mereka, termasuk menteri dan jajaran satu level dibawah menteri, demikian juga menteri akan menuntut kinerja bagus dari pegawai tersebut. Karena tidak ada lagi status permanen, maka sistem perkoncoan yang mengakibatkan korupsi melembaga akan terputus cepat.

Dengan tenderisasi ini, PNS menjadi jauh lebih ramping. Selain menteri dan pimpinan dibawahnya, PNS juga bisa terdiri dari jajaran pengawas kinerja pemenang tender.

Overcrowded Jakarta

I biked today to work after a 2 month hiatus. The rain season contributed to my laziness, but I did not have a driver for more than a month as well. I experience again the massive traffic jam Jakarta is known for first hand since I cannot hide inside an air conditioned car cabin.

It is stressful to be trapped in traffic jams everyday. For a month I had to drive my son to school 20 km one-way. It took me 30 minutes in which 2/3 of the time is consumed by traffic jam due to cars entering and leaving a school on a narrow street. Driving back to work can take 1 hour due to a huge rush hour volume entering tool highway and a lane reduction. I spent 2 hours every morning and 1.5 hours every afternoon for this activity.

A 4 hour commute time for a worker in Jakarta is apparently not unusual. Some people in my office spend 5 hours everyday for commuting. The total cost due to this wasted time is staggering. A conservative estimate of 1 million commuter everyday will put the cost at about Rp 60 billion everyday. That's "Rp 60 milyar setiap hari" in Indonesian. Every year it will cost Rp 18 trillion, which is 1.5% of the national budget. It is simply ridiculous.

It amazes me therefore that there is no continued systematic effort by government to reduce this crippling traffic jam. I have lived in Jakarta for 10 months and notice three main reasons for the traffic jam:

1. Business and government activities are centered in Jakarta. People - including me - flock to Jakarta to find jobs. Jakarta simply cannot handle more than 10 million residents.

2. Minibuses (mikrolet, metromini, etc.), which are privately run, stop anywhere their passengers want them to. This includes picking up passengers. They idle at busy intersections to wait for passengers.

3. Lane markings are poor and not continuous when roads meet at ramps, intersections, and interchanges. These conditions are often the cause of traffic gridlocks in toll highways. Motorists do not know which lanes to pick at interchanges and have to slow down considerably.

No, I don't blame motorcyclists (pengendara sepeda motor) for the traffic jams. They are often squeezed in and out of their lanes by cars that fill up the entire width of a road. They zig zag their ways because they do not have dedicated lanes. They occupy opposing lanes for the same reason.

Jakarta has a population density of about 14,000/km². Beijing has a density of 1200/km², while Mexico City 6000/km². Tokyo also has a density of 6000/km², Singapore 7000/km², while Tehran 10,000/km². Two cities - Cairo and Mumbai - beat Jakarta as they respectively sit at 17,000/km² and 21,000/km². Does Jakarta want to be like Mumbai or Cairo?

A target density of 10,000/km² means that the population has to go down by at least 30%. Or Jakarta has to expand by 30%. The expansion, however, cannot mean that Jakarta incorporates nearby cities like Bogor, Tangerang, and Bekasi since they have their own populations. It is quite clear to me that a population reduction of 30% is needed to make Jakarta more livable.

This could only mean that Jakarta has to give up its business and government administration headquarters to other cities in this vast archipelago.

Indonesia's Presidential Airplane Purchase

Indonesia's State Secretary Office decided to purchase a new 737-800 Boeing Business Jet as the presidential airplane. It costs the country about Rp 800 billion (= USD 90 million). The cost is about 0.06% of the 2011 national budget. I heard this issue being discussed on the Sindo Radio on Friday, February 10th: whether it is fair and essential for Indonesia to purchase such airplane.

The Presidential Office's spokesperson cited efficiency and security as the two main reasons.  A Jakarta Globe article reports that the ROI is 35 years.

Operational cost of either rental or purchase, associated with fuel and personnel, should be approximately equal, so we can ignore this factor. We don't know the annual rental cost of airplane rented from Garuda Indonesia, which is currently used by the President. Let us call this variable x. The cost of airplane purchase - let us call it y - is obviously more expensive. The 35 years ROI roughly means

35x = y.

Given that y = Rp 800 billions, then a fair rental cost should be x = Rp 22.86 billion annually, or Rp 62.6 millions per day. The State Secretary Office should release the airplane rental cost data so that people can make informed opinion about the government's decision.

1. Income Per Capita perspective. The 2011 income per capita for Indonesia is USD 3469. Thus, the annual expense of Rp 22.86 billion is equivalent to what 730 Indonesians make in a year, or about 400 families. Based on this, the cost is reasonable. Even if the airplane lasts only for 20 years, the cost is still reasonable, as it means the cost is equivalent to 1278 Indonesians make in a year.

2. Investment perspective. If this money is instead invested by purchasing its own Government Bond, which has about 6% annual interest, then the amount of money at the end of 35 years would be

Rp 22.86 billions (1 - 1.06³⁴)/(1-1.06) = Rp 2292 billions.

The Rp 800 billions will have grown by about 3 times over 35 years. This is the future value of the money spent on buying the airplane and the decision does not look bad on this perspective either.

If, however, the Rp 800 billions payment is made as soon as the airplane is delivered by Boeing, then the future value will skyrocket to Rp 6150 billions in 35 years. It will have grown by about 8 times over 35 years. This payment scheme is the more likely scenario, and if this is the case, then the decision looks much worse. It would be good if the State Secretary Office releases information on the purchase payment schedule.

Rp 6150 billion could be spent on building a highway over 10 years. Assuming an interest rate of 6%, it is equivalent to spending Rp 467 billions per year for 10 years. The cost of building 1 km of road in Indonesia is about Rp 10 billions, so the decision to spend Rp 800 billions on the airplane is equivalent to cancelling a construction of 46.7 km x 10 = 467 km highway that will be useful for 35 years.

3. Leadership perspective. The absence of long term investment perspective is missing in this decision. I calculated in my previous blog that the Jakarta traffic jam costs about Rp 1 trillion monthly. The Rp 6.15 trillions value of the airplane purchase is equivalent of prolonging the Jakarta traffic jam by 6 months.

Another aspect is leadership. In a country where the majority of people live with a salary of USD 289, it is bordering on unethical to spend Rp 800 billion on a presidential airplane. The President could address the nation weekly on teve instead of zooming around the country in a luxurious airplane. These weekly addresses could be more effective when put in Youtube so that young Indonesians can listen on their computer tablets.

The airplane purchase does not give a good example to the government officials. In a country where people try very hard to conform to one another, the purchase decision does not set a good example.

All things considered, I doubt the purchase decision can enhance efficiency of the President's job since travel efficiency is a small part of his overall job efficiency. As for ensuring the security of the President, there is already Indonesia's Secret Service to guard him 24/7. Furthermore, I always wonder how secure the communication system in the Boeing presidential airplane, given that it will be designed and manufactured in the US.

Teaching Job v. Industry Job

I have been busy with work for the past 9 months in Indonesia. I haven't had time to hike a mountain. Two years ago during my 6-month sabbatical leave in Indonesia, I did that, backpacking, and biking intercity. That's my proof that teaching job is less stressful than industry job.

It is therefore okay to make less money as an academic because for me time is much more important than money. I enjoy outdoor sports - running, hiking, biking - where I can do fun stuff without buying something new. I just use my body - until I am dog tired - and enjoy the workout.

Free time is what I miss the most, now that I work in industry. Constantly arriving emails and phone calls keep the business go round - I guess - but we cannot work 24/7. I read a few weeks ago that Nokia stops forwarding emails to its employee's PDA's past office hours. It is a good idea.

I had a dinner with Indonesian alumnae of Canadian universities a couple of weeks ago, who are members of Calindo. Check Calindo website if you have time; it has a list of Canadian university alumnae in Indonesia. They feel the same way, that 24/7 business activities in the end do not matter in the long run. It is the legacy - what we leave behind after we die is what matters - and the families we raised.

I find Google's Do No Evil mantra makes sense now. Business - if it wants to grow - must have a purpose other than just making money. Making money should come from values it creates for customers and principles it holds.

I also don't think it is necessary for university courses to replicate what industry does. University is not for students to learn to work in a particular industry. University is a place for students to develop critical and independent thinking.

Why do not university courses replicate what industry does? First, most industry jobs are repetitive. Within a year or sooner, a new hire should be able to find the job rhythm and to work seamlessly. Second, each industry job often requires skills that combine these courses. For a great majority of jobs, it seems to me now, a well educated graduate should be able to adapt and work well within 1 year from his first day at the job.

Math Thinking Skills

It is obvious that a good majority of Indonesian science and math teachers are not used to and do not practice and develop math thinking skills. I roughly estimate about 75% of these teachers teach their students math and physics using formulaic approach, where math and physics problems are understood and solved using standard formulas given in classroom.

One can only blame Department of National Education (DepDikNas) for this bad teaching strategy. It does not produce tough students who have abiding interests in rigorous, consistent thinking. It only creates students who are lazy in thinking through problems; these students do not have disciplined, supple mind.

I am of the opinion that the mess Indonesia now experiences - corruption, bad infrastructure planning and network - is partially caused by state planners who are not rigorous and thorough in their planning deliberations.

It would be good if someone could share with me data that link bad infrastructure planning and execution with poor math teaching. The connection for me is obvious. These state planners are normally economists and engineers. They took math in high schools and universities, but they never learned it rigorously enough so that math thinking skills are never embedded in their thinking.

What are math thinking skills? They are learned when one solves math problems. Math problems are normally goal-oriented. To prove a theorem, or to show using algebraic manipulations a math formula. The way this goal-oriented problem is solved is, however, equally important.

Math thinking skills involve the following activities. One cannot use circular argument to get an answer. One must map the problem in terms of what variables he can manipulate and what the constraints are. One needs to know how to construct the answer based on previously available theorems and results. One must be diligent and careful to not make algebraic mistakes - mixing negative and positive signs, or forgetting a term in an equation, for example. One must be able to map a broad strategy to attack the problem; in fact, this broad strategy has to be available first before making a first step. A lot of thinking goes into getting this broad strategy. All these skills are practiced constantly when solving math problems.

When one spends enough time solving math problems, one develops an understanding of a standard for himself how a problem - any problem - is solved. One is not happy if a problem is not solved completely. One becomes an independent thinker since he applies his own thinking and standard.

A lot of Indonesians are not taking seriously what lacks in Indonesia's education system. At their own perils.

Poor's Numbers

I like to talk to a lot of people. Their problems seem limitless. I haven't found a compelling person to tell in this blog to update my interview with poor Indonesians. Their stories become increasingly ordinary as there are so many of them.

A husband had to move back to his village in Ungaran, Central Java because he got laid off as a restaurant cook. He has about 2500 meter square of land on which he plants corn and green beans. The price of fertilizer and herbicide is so expensive so that from Rp 1,000,000 investment he can get only Rp 300,000. A 30% return, of course, but the proceed is spread over 3 months and quite miniscule. And he cannot scale up his business since that's all the land he has. His wife works in Jakarta and wires Rp 1,000,000 per month. The snack for their 2 kids costs Rp 30,000 per day and pretty much eats up the wired money. To make ends meet, the husband becomes a farm laborer and gets Rp 35,000 per day.

They dream to open a food stall in the Ungaran market. They cannot save Rp 5,000,000 to realize this dream since what they earn is always gone by the end of each month. For most Indonesian poor, Rp 5,000,000 is an astronomical amount.

Another story is a driver with 6 children, from university age to 1.5 years old baby. He hopes to make Rp 2,500,000 per month to feed 7 people in the family in Jakarta. His rented house is leaky during rains and he looks like 60 years old although he is only 43. His eyes tell a life with many hardships.

I have grown more pessimistic with the human development prospect of Indonesia as I spend more time in Indonesia. There are 2 main problems. First, the capital owners are not willing to share their profits with their employees to allow for the workers to improve their children's education and health. There have been a lot of labor disputes in the past 2 months, mostly due to the minimum wage amount issue. Second, these employees have low quality. They form a vicious cycle. It is hard to unravel them until one has to give: either the capital owners or the workers.

The truth is that the Indonesian poor do not feel the impact of progress happening in Indonesia. The solution is education, but the quality of education is not good and education is getting more expensive as well. The government has to increase health and education subsidy for poor.

As I write this I am saddened. I left Indonesia 22 years ago. I have seen a lot of progress, but some things never change.

Training Ground

I feel good today. The driver who has been with me for the past 8 months makes more money working somewhere else. I told him he could move - I would recommend him to move - if he can make a better living for his family and get health insurance for them.

This experience reinforces my non-attachment principle. There is no need to hold on to something if it is time to let it go. Not a driver, a housemaid, a wife, a son, or anything else for that matter.

I have been criticized by my father to let my son live by himself in Canada. He is in grade 12. It was difficult for him, but he has so far adjusted well. He acknowledges that it would be difficult to start living by himself if he does this in his first year at university.

I have been told that I am a "western" dad despite my Asian heritage by one of my friends. I have to say that most parents in Indonesia really hold on to their kids, until they grow well into adulthood.

But a memory is like a box that I can lock if I don't want to remember about it. A glimpse of my son's photo reminds me of four of us having a vacation. It aches me. I looked at his photo and am grateful he has grown to an adult I am proud of.

I think the best thing for me to do is to allow my daily life to be a training ground for anybody who crosses my path. I simply work with this person and hope he and I can learn something along the way. When it is time to say good bye, then we will do so. No tears, no regret. Life goes on.

Trader's Mentality

I won't bother too much with the sad state of infrastructure in Jakarta if I don't have a family living with me here. But I do, so I become more critical as the lack of public infrastructure, such as decent sidewalks and bus stops, starts creeping into family's enjoyment of living in Jakarta.

We have been living in Jakarta for 8 months, and slowly - but surely - we feel the effects of lack of infrastructure in our daily lives. It is very difficult to walk around our neighborhood. The hot weather makes kids and women - mostly - uncomfortable when walking outside in the sun. The irony here is that Jakarta has fertile land and it shouldn't be difficult to grow large trees sheltering every road.

I can only blame for the sorry state of roads on a severe lack of planning on roads being built and maintained. This lack of planning happens everywhere. I see it in the roads, in the buildings where designs and construction materials seem haphazardly assembled, in houses where they have little regards for safety, comfort, and aesthetics. There are places in Jakarta - to name an example is the food court in Pejaten Village - that show good design and build, but it is a tiny minority. By and large, Jakarta is a complete design mess.

I often ask "How come the lack of planning seems to permeate many activities in Indonesia?" They seem related to a lack of thinking and putting this thinking into action. Why do people appear always in a hurry when they think about something? Indonesians are a relaxed bunch when they talk, but when they think they always want short cuts. Here is what I think the reason why.

I think most Indonesians have trader's mentality. A trader is someone who derives his money for living from trading activities: buying and selling stuff. A trader will pay a lot of attention to maintaining good relationships with different people: customers, suppliers, and informants. A trader will not try to offend someone for a possibility that this someone might be one day his customer.

A trader is a consummate deal maker. A trader maintains a balance of interests between suppliers and customers. It is not in the interests of a trader - I believe - to change a status quo once he learns how he derives profits from it. It is more profitable to have a stable network of contacts than to produce a quality product.

I think most of 66 years of independence have been governed by this principle where maintaining a status quo is more important than building a strong nation. Look at how the political elite get their money from and you will realize they have trader's mentality.

A trader is not a builder. A trader does not create something out of nothing. A trader brings products from one place to another. Indonesia has a strong trader's mentality since it is a vast archipelago and relies on abundant natural resources to make money.

A builder will not focus his energy entirely on building good relationships but also on building good physical objects, such as roads, building, and manufactured products. I see the trader v. builder dichotomy everytime I listen to discussions about infrastructure woes in Indonesia, from flood mitigation efforts to building safer roads.

Trader's mentality also explains why construction companies - despite having already assurance of winning contracts from their cronies and friends - still build shoddy buildings and roads. At least one thinks that these companies make an attempt to build decent products, but they don't. They are always in a hurry to make more money and are willing to sacrifice quality.

The problem with infrastructure, however, is that after it is built haphazardly - complete with their crappy qualities - it is very difficult to remove. You cannot easily remove badly designed roads and buildings. On the other hand, you can easily actually remove bad contact networks. In this sense, I think the rulers of Indonesia - the rich, the smart, the powerful - have been investing in the wrong kind of investment. Instead of building good infrastructure, it has invested in an infrastructure of network alliance by showering and exchanging each other with money and power.

Poor's Subsidy

For $250/month one can hire a driver in Indonesia. For as little as $60/month one can afford an unexperienced housemaid. They show that what slows down Indonesia's economy is the low quality of workers. It is practically impossible to expect them to improve their skills beyond their current and their ages are between 20 and 40 years old, the supposedly productive age bracket.

They received typically 6-9 years of school education which is not enough to improve their lot in real world. Most grow up in rural areas and cannot use their agricultural skills when they move to cities. I estimate about 60% of Indonesian workers have these characteristics.

These Indonesians are achingly polite, so much so that they would defer if they are presented with challenges. For instance, I was interviewing a driver, and before I said anything about driving out of town he already said that he did not have intercity driving experience. Such worker needs a lot of encouragements - which could be tiring for an employer - and suggests he does not have initiatives.

Low skill workers are also reluctant to improve their skills. What do I mean by low skills? They are those that can be mastered at acceptable proficiency within 1-2 months. Examples are household (simple) cooking, floor cleaning, and grocery buying. Driving is not a low level skill, but it is easy to get driver's license in Indonesia. It still takes 1-2 years to master driving skills though, but there are not many standard rules in Indonesia. All one has to do is an access to a car, a driver's license, and a willingness to drive in a chaotic traffic.

They are disadvantaged because of their low skills. They are, however, a boon to the Indonesia's upper middle class. The quality of living of the upper middle class is quite cushy since cooking, cleaning, driving, washing, gardening, and even house repair can be outsourced cheaply. It allows for the upper middle class to focus further on their jobs, and this is what I would call the poor's subsidy.

It is not a mistake of the upper middle class to give low salary since there are a lot of poor looking for jobs and the quality of these workers is low. What separates one from others is his loyalty and hard work.

This low economic class represents a huge untapped market. My rough estimate is that their purchasing power is about USD 15 billion per year. Unilever, Danone, and other multinational consumer product companies aggresively pursue business in Indonesia not only for their current purchasing power but for their future loyalty in 10 years.

Before their purchasing power can increase they have to improve their education and skills. This is not a realistic expectation, however. What is more likely going to happen is that their purchasing power will rise due to inflation. Demands of wage raise are getting louder. There have been labour demonstrations occuring in Batam island and Jakarta. I don't think they will subside since lives are hard for them.

This low economic class is - I think - the reason why Indonesia is not in recession. They spend all they have on lubricating the country's economy. They subsidize the rich with their low paying wages. I suspect money circulation in this economic class is fast as well since they borrow each other constantly. I know this since I have a microcredit business in Solo and watch how they struggle to make ends meet.

Kesehatan Bangsa

Sebelum kaya, kita sehat dulu karena aku
Belum lihat orang kaya mati muda
Mereka terbiasa olahraga dan jaga makan
Jadi sehat makanya lebih penting dari kaya

Rakyat miskin berdesakan di kampung
Makan seadanya, hampir semua laki laki
Kurus, pertanda sulitnya hidup walau
Ibu-ibu sering gemuk mungkin terlalu
Sering mencicipi masakan

Sedang yang punya "upward mobility"
Memenuhi mall dan makan suka cita
Banyak yang gemuk: bapak anak ibu
Sering aku pikir: hidup untuk makan
Atau makan untuk hidup

Kebanyakan rakyat jadinya tidak sehat
Kurang berolahraga beribu alasan
Bagaimana bisa bersaing dengan bangsa
lain yang lari, berenang, main ski
Melatih keberanian, jiwa, raga

Jangan salahkan masakan Indonesia
Karena memang cita rasanya luar biasa
Aku bisa gemuk tidak karuan jika
Menuruti lidah perut yang terus lapar

Tapi mungkin karena rakyat kurang arahan
Maksudku, kalau hobi ya mbok hobi olahraga
Presiden pun ikut gemuk pipi nyempluk
Makanya aku suka Jokowi karena dia
Orang kaya tapi kurus, tidak ngumbar nafsu

Work Life Balance

Last time I wrote my blog was 12 Dec 2011. It was my first feature on interview with Indonesian poor. It seems a long time ago, and although I tried to find time it was not possible. There were many things I had to do at work. Managing a team of people and at the same time adjusting to a new work environment in the past 8 months.

It took me 6 months to adjust from an associate professor job to a managerial position at an oil and gas company. Much adjustment rests with coordinating people; this took about 50% of the time. The other half is to learn and do the job at the same time.

Once 6 months have passed, I noticed I changed my work strategy. I become much more cooperative and try to find common grounds to settle issues. I prioritize better since the most challenging part of working in industry is to understand and manipulate the connections between time and cost.

Different business types have different time-cost correlations. For university business, professors do not worry about cost except costs of equipment and amount of grants as there are virtually no profit and loss calculations.

That is the work challenge and I survive so far. The other component I have to worry is life. My life. What I want to do with my life. What I want to achieve. Working for a company is good, up to a point, but I know at some point I have to be on my own.

The work life balance is tricky for me. I need good salary to support my family, but I myself prefer free time to do whatever I want. I am always attracted to become a traveling teacher monk. It is not a job; I mean: who gives a shit about job if you become monk, anyway.

I am one who believes my lifestyle should dictate what my job should be. Not the other way around. I am still working on making it a reality.