Fluctuations as GDP Growth

I am scratching my head as I think about Indonesia's economy:

1. Road infrastructure is mismanaged and underfunded; it takes 13 hours to drive 600 km in Jawa.
2. Telecommunication infrastructure is working, however, since it is in the hand of private companies. 
3. Average level of education of Indonesians is grade 9 (please read my previous blog on average education level of Indonesians). 
4. Income per capita of Indonesian is about USD 3500.

Despite all of these, the 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate of Indonesia is 6.1%. Canada does not have these structural problems, yet it experiences a GDP annual growth rate of 3.2% in 2010.

I am beginning to think that what Indonesia - and I suspect other developing countries also - experiences is a growth spur that could be associated with statistical fluctuations. It is known in statistical physics that a large system that conserves its total energy will experience fluctuations on the order of the inverse square root of its number of particles.

Laws of large numbers are quite robust, so I doubt that they don't apply to economic systems. Since Canada's population is about 7.4 smaller than Indonesia's, it suggests that, assuming 1/2 of 34 millions of Canadians participate fully in their economic system, there are about

17 millions × (3.2/6.1)² = 4.75 millions

Indonesians who fully participate in Indonesia's economy. Thus, only 1.9% of the Indonesian population that are causing the 6.1% GDP annual growth of Indonesia if this growth is caused by statistical fluctuations. I don't have time to check the Indonesia's statistics, but I am willing to bet that the 1.9% number would be roughly equal to the percentage of Indonesians who received undergraduate degrees or higher.

From everyday's perspectives, I see the low quality of human capital and the dire state of road infrastructure as the two main barriers to improving Indonesia's economic performance. These two problems are the choke points of Indonesia's progress and could cause the 6.1% growth to abate at some point. What might precipitate this inflection is anyone's guess.

What remains true in Indonesia though is opportunity. The untapped market is at least 10 times the 1.9% that cause the 6.1% growth. But it will have to wait for the human capital quality to improve so that their average wage rises. Road infrastructure can drag down economy due to high transportation costs; Indonesians are increasingly upset with their road infrastructure.